p(doom) Tracker 1.0 for Windows 10 and 11
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A small taskbar app that shows one number: a pooled estimate of p(doom), the
probability that advanced AI causes an existential catastrophe, combined from
estimates that researchers and studies have stated publicly. Click the number
for the chart, the breakdown, the sources and how it's calculated.

It's free, needs no account or sign-in, and sends nothing about you anywhere.
It only downloads public pages (Wikipedia and a few AI-safety news feeds), twice
a day, and uses almost no power while it waits.

An experiment by Gary J. Anderson: https://garyjanderson.com


GETTING STARTED

1. Unzip this folder somewhere you'll keep it, e.g. Documents\p(doom).
2. Double-click PDoomTray.exe.
3. Windows may say "Windows protected your PC". That's because this small
   project isn't code-signed. Click "More info", then "Run anyway".
4. The window opens and takes its first reading within a few seconds.


KEEP THE NUMBER ON YOUR TASKBAR

Windows hides new taskbar icons under the ^ arrow next to the clock.
Click ^ and drag the number onto the taskbar. Windows remembers it.

- Click the number to open the window; minimize or close it to put it back.
- Right-click the number for Update now, Settings, Start with Windows and Quit.


REMOVING IT

1. Right-click the number. If "Start with Windows" is ticked, untick it.
2. Choose Quit.
3. Delete this folder and the folder %LOCALAPPDATA%\PDoomTray
   (paste that into File Explorer's address bar).


A NOTE ON THE NUMBER

p(doom) estimates are subjective, and people define them differently. The app
summarises what people have said publicly; it isn't a forecast or a
measurement. The "How it works" tab explains every rule.

Estimates: Wikipedia's P(doom) article (CC BY-SA 4.0) and published studies.
Headlines: Transformer, AI Safety Newsletter, Import AI, Hacker News, GDELT.
